The ever-increasing number of individuals around the globe who are over-sized for the average airline seat will have a major impact on aircraft interior design. Two separate trends in body types, the larger passenger and the taller passenger, will require that airlines revisit their design approach and focus on people centred innovation to provide solutions.

Obesity, as measured by medical professionals in terms of BMI (Body Mass Index) and the prevalence of taller people are an undeniable part of our future. Trends also show that this very BMI may have a flaw in the future, due to the fact that some people are now growing taller than their ancestors. In some cultures, primarily Asian and South American, there have been dramatic changes that are beginning to be seen by medical professionals.

While there is a lot of discussion around the core reason for these changes, that is not as important to the commercial airline industry as what to do with the changing size and shapes of passengers. Some carriers already have a policy about “obese” passengers, but they are defined by a set of inconsistent factors. One of the more common measurements (and one that got a certain amount of notoriety from actor Kevin Smith while attempting to fly Southwest Airlines) is if a passenger “can comfortably lower the armrest”. I am relatively confident that this will be an issue in years to come.

Airlines and Obese Passengers
Another common policy that airlines follow is to have larger passengers purchase two seats on a flight, or to pay to upgrade their travel to another cabin. As capacity reduction continues to put some pressure on the ability of airlines to deliver these seats on short notice, there will also be a need to identify passengers ahead of the flight.  This has some potential legal and social implications that may be unpalatable to most carriers.

Often lost in this discussion is the comfort of other passengers who are sharing the space with the obese passenger.   There is a potential customer service issue for airlines as other passengers potentially complain about the loss of personal space already at a premium.

There are potential issues around aircraft safety, as passengers changing shape and sizes may cause some to question if some aircraft emergency exits are even accessible to these individuals.

What can airlines do for Super-size Passengers?
What new innovations are available to carriers to deal with this evolving need in all classes of service? There are some changes with so called “sliding seats” that may allow for airlines to offer slight adaptations to seat size. However, these represent safety challenges with the size of the aisle being potentially reduced.

I believe that there are not commercially available economy seats to deal with this issue, as airlines do not fell that they need or want to invest in this area of development. I believe that a more proactive approach is called for, and developing adjustable seating or even select seating that is truly wider will offer both passengers and airlines a better solution to addressing this emerging “mega-trend”.

At the same time, there are premium seating solutions in forward cabins that do make flying more comfortable for people of all sizes. However, these may be economically unfeasible for many passengers.  In this case, I do see a day where additional potential legal challenges may be faced by air carriers in places like the USA by an obese person who may claim that their size is due to a disability and is therefore protected by law. Carriers will need to proactively examine the potential range of solutions that could be available.

Airlines and the Taller Passenger
In a completely separate issue, there is obviously better news for taller passengers and travel on some airlines.  Some airlines have a gate control policy that allows them to “gate control” the seats with more legroom for passengers they feel could benefit from the additional space.

There are also a number of carriers offering “extra legroom” or “premium seats” in the economy cabin. That said, some carriers also charge for these seats, which some taller passengers may feel is unfair. In addition, with the increase in Low Cost Carriers (LCCs) over the last decade, there has also been ever so slight erosion in seat pitch (the distance between one row and the next). This presents the taller passenger with comfort challenges, but may give some carriers an advantage with this segment of the traveling public.

What can airlines do for taller passengers?
For this particular trend, most carriers have a product that is already available in their economy class, including on some smaller regional jet services. Overall, while there may be an increase in demand for more legroom in economy class, I do not foresee airline economics allowing for what American Airlines used to refer to as “More Room throughout Coach”- a product that offered the entire cabin more space.

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If you are you interested in knowing more about this subject, here are a few links that talk about the core of the issue and offer additional insight on the causes and social impacts in a broader sense:

Inside Government Workshop on Obesity
http://www.insidegovernment.co.uk/health/obesity/index.php

US National Institute (NIH) of Health on Obesity
http://health.nih.gov/topic/Obesity

JAL does it "Their Way"

What a month it has been for Japan Air Lines!  Prior to the Japanese elections at the end of August, which swept Yukio Hatoyama and the Opposition Democrats to power for the first time in 54 years, JAL believed it was to be the recipient of a carefully crafted short-term financings package with the previous government.   

This left the normally conservative JAL with a serious problem, and as other carriers have already long ago realised – there were very few places to turn for funding.  So what is Asia’s largest carrier to do when it finds a new government that came to power on a promise to wean Japanese Corporations off of preferred public funds?

A Helping Hand

Well we did not have to wait long to find that other carriers were more than interested in lending  a helping hand.   From OneWorld partner American Airlines leading the charge to Tokyo, to SkyTeam’s Delta it suddenly seemed that there was ample opportunity for JAL to forge new partnerships.   Soon, some of the larger members of the major alliances were scrambling to put together a deal.  In that frenzy of activity, including AA’s major liquidity drive which found them with 2.9MM USD in cash for various strategic moves, a few finer points seemed to be being papered over.   To keen observers of Japan, none of these ovetures really seemed to fully add up.   From talk of mergers to liquidity buyouts it seemed as though the principals and the mainstream reports all but ignored some of the more practical issues with Japanese ownership laws, which make US foreign ownership rules look positively liberal.

I would not want to play chess with JAL

The whole affair also seemed to focus on the partnership possibilities and missed  some of the all important cultural cues that caused some to wonder if JAL were not just strategically playing their suitors.  Surely JAL has to know at the start that without a swift and unlikely change in Japanese law, at best, they could only accept well under 10% of any liquidity offer that included stocks and other securities.

Also surprising was the move by JAL’s potential suitors, as none of the carriers involved in the negotiations could actually be accurately described as in a position to throw a financial lifeline to a new partner.  Of particular mystery was AA/BA’s combined approach, with AA’s health only now beginning to stabilise and BA being self described as being in a “critical cash position”.  So tenuous is BA’s position that they recently asked staff to voluntarily forego a month of pay, or work a part-time schedule.  Delta is still wrapping up the final costs from it’s acquisition of Northwest Airlines.  So what was in it for them?   Access to the lucrative Japanese market and the coveted slots of Haneda were a good start.  Having a foothold in once of the densest markets in Asia was certainly another.

I did it ”My Way”

During the past month none of this ever really added up for us at TWC.  Now in the wake of the Japanese Government and the Japanese Development Bank’s latest promise of support and assistance, and the caveats that come with it, will JAL be able to navigate its way to clear air?  We would argue that while cultuarally Japanese companies, and their employees, still want to fulfill the covenant of lifetime employment, it is no longer practical.  It is a positive sign that  JAL make the hard choices that other carriers have already had to make in recent years.  I do not think that we should underestimate the pain and cultural complexity that they will have to negotiate while cutting the bottom line.   In many ways it will be harder than in the right-to-work culture found in the U.S.

So as JAL’s President steps down- some would say in less-than-honourable circumstances- the carrier is this month intensifying  the scale and depth of its voluntary restructuring.  Having been with three carriers who stared down insolvency, and two who succumbed, all I can think is no matter how hard the cuts, there is no replacement for charting your own voluntary course through these hard times.   I wish JAL nothing but luck as they do things “their way”.

You have to wonder if in airline boardrooms around the world that there are not a few people muttering to themselves. “We just cannot catch a break”. 

TWC had high hopes for the summer travel season, even in the face of the credit crunch.   Now we are not so sure.  Along with everyone else we have been watching the Swine Influzena reporting closely.  Now that we in the EU has it’s first confirmed case of Swine Influenza in Spain- where does that leave us?  

Is the problem as serious as is being reported?

It is important to point out that a “pandemic” can only be declared by the WHO when it infection rates reach what is called “Level 6″.   As of today, the WHO is reporting we are at a “Level 3″.

We simply don’t know, but what we do know most of the infection reporting there is the proven statistical formula used by several gov’ts that shows that at this point in a infectious epidemic, the numbers are probably being reported too low intially.  In general the reality could be up to 15% higher than reported.   The less developed the country and their healthcare infrastructure- the higher that gap between reported and reality will be.  

Is this like the SARS outbreak, and is the SARS outbreak a good financial model for this pandeminc? 

Our analysis says no.    SARS was contending with a small recession, a new military action in Iraq, and a travelling public still jittery from 9/11.  While there were signifigant downturns in the forunes of many Asian carriers at the time, and the ripple effect was felt accross the world.    

So, will the SARS outbreak serve as a financial model?  Probably not.  We are at a different point in global finance, and the effect is likely to be deeper and felt for longer than the SARS incident.

So what is the bottom line?

We beleive that the impact of the current Swine Influenza will be better on the health front, and worst on the financial front. 

From the Health Front, SARS helped us meet this challenge

SARS forces all governments to seriously consider a pandemic, and all important plans and pharmacuticals are in place to help some populations (in the UK we have enough doses to treat 1 in 4 citizens).  With improvements in eary diagnosis and general quality of medical care- we should not see the numbers killed that we have during past pandemics.

From the Financial Front, SARS has not prepared us for how deep this lowpoint may be

From a financial standpoint, well how can we not all take a brace position.  We are already standing at the abyss, and this could tip the balance for airlines and travel companies.   Even if governments and NGOs do not put out travel advice people will make their own choices. Most people may not want to take the risk. (Poland, Hong Kong, China, Japan are already advising their citizens not to travel to affected areas)

Ironically, the Swiss Pharmacutical company Roche, who manufactures one of the main retro-viral medications that gov’t stockpile, are finding their fortunes rise at the moment.

As we head off into this summer travel season, we beleive that the mix of financial crunch and some reserve over the potential pandemic that could last through June and July- people may just stay home.

"Does anyone here object to his union?" Queue Congressman Orbester (Pic copyright of TWC 2009)

After lobbying from Alaska Air and other labour groups, it would appear that Congressman Oberstar (Democratic Congressman and Chairman of the House Transportation Committee) has requested that U. S. Transportation Secretary LaHood look into the “nationality” of Virgin America for potential violations of U.S. foreign ownership rules.

We find this ironic, given today’s news from the G20 summit in our own hometown.  While protesters went about their business in the Square Mile, down in the Docklands something truly important was happening.  In the final communiqué the G20 found common ground, in principle, against trade barriers.  We predict that we will see implicit ripple effects onto Open Skies Mark II as a result.  We also think that a US Congressman would be more concerned with American jobs being lost vs. the blatant protectionist politics and his obsession with HR 831.

Ironically, the Virgin issue has very little to do with HR831, as it is a stand-along player that Oberstar is righteously trying to protect against what his calls ‘whiny’ legacy airlines.

Perhaps we should all think this through to its logical conclusion?  In our opinion both Oberstar is missing the point.   We are talking about American jobs here, and it is my sincere hope that the legislators of both Houses from California and New York will be so kind as to remind the Congressman of that pertinent fact.  

In addition, is it possible that while the investors may have indeed decided to extract some of their remaining investment from this venture, that perhaps they still retain critical voting rights as part of the contract’s structure?   I am no lawyer, but what I do know is this: The Virgin Group and its CEO are both known quantities to me personally, and I would not underestimate how particularly adept they are at doing their jobs.

While we understand the position of Alaska Air, we are a bit more puzzled by the reaction of some of the labour unions who are exercising their muscle on this issue as well.    While I appreciate that times are tough, but I have to wonder if ALPA be singing a different tune if Virgin America’s pilots were dues paying members?

Oberstar has missed the fundamentals.  We live in a global economy now, and airlines are on the front line.  They are our physical lifeline to the new global economy, a tangible manifestation of the reality of international commerce, trade, and leisure.  

At TWC we will continue to use our resources to highlight what we interpret as the dangerous brand of political protectionism practiced by the Chairman of the US House Transportation Committee.

Disclaimer:  The author holds no current positions or active contracts with any of the carriers mentioned in this blog.

BLOGROLL ON THIS TOPIC

http://eyeonlaaviation.blogspot.com/2009/04/oberstar-claims-vx-may-be-violating.html

www.planebusiness.com (Don’t subscribe and you are in the aviation business?  You need to!)

• What happened to the FedEx MD11?
• What is the impact to Narita Airport and to Passengers?
• Some real-time passenger stories
• Our Summary of the situation

The Departure Boards at Narita today had to be watched closely, as they changed frequently and generally for the worse.

Having just arrived in Tokyo on Sunday evening, I can personally attest to how the winds were already causing a few delays on the arrival of our flight from London. As we approached Runway 34L the on-board “birds eye view” camera gave us a wonderful view of the runway as we pitched slightly from side-to-side. I often forget how tired you can be after nearly twelve hours on an airplane.  I was to learn today, however, that my long trip was nothing in comparison to what some passengers were about to go through.

I was awake at 0500, as travellers often do on long trips. My wife and I got up and wandered around the early morning streets of Tokyo. While still a little dark, the wind was howling through the clean streets of the city. Having watched a bit of the local news earlier, we had heard it was going to be a beautiful day, but the Japanese Meteorological Service had  issued a warning for high-winds through the Tokyo area.

What happened?

Then this morning at approximately 0650 Tokyo London time, FedEx Flight 80 from Guangzhou, China was landing at Tokyo Narita. As the MD11 flared up, just before touching down, the aircraft appeared to come down onto the runway in an uncontrolled manner. Bouncing up again only to clip its wing causing the aircraft to fatally lose control and in a fiery explosion come to rest with the front of the fuselage turned upside down.

Japanese Rescue workers focus on saving the pilots -- courtesy NNC

We watched in horror as the Japanese fire and rescue response was immediate and efficient, and it took the fire-fighters just under an hour to cut their way into the MD11’s cockpit area to rescue the two pilots. While initial reports from the Japanese Fire Services advised that both the pilots were alive after being extracted, they later both later died.

The impact of this tragic event is being felt at Tokyo Narita, not only by the Fire and Rescue Services, but also by the passengers. The closure of one of the runways at Japan’s busiest airport is having a serious ripple effect on travellers.

While waiting at Tokyo Station for the Airport Express train I met the Hanson family from New York. Doug and Anna Maria Hanson were booked to travel today on JAL’s flight to Honolulu. They, and their two teenage daughters, had been travelling the world for over a month visiting South America and Asia. They had just finished enjoying a one week stay in Tokyo and said “We are looking forward to the Hawaii portion of their trip.” Now as we approach Narita airport the Hanson’s are not sure if they will be going at all today.

I am fairly certain the Hanson's did not make it today.

Anna Maria said, “It is a terrible tragedy. If there is a delay, we can handle it.” They had the air of seasoned travellers. When asked what she thought of their trip so far, she said, “People we have met here in Japan, and in Asian countries in general, have been among the most polite and organised that we have encountered. I am sure that we will find a way to make it to Honolulu.”

The Departures Hall was full of queues that one might expect, and on the far side of the airport check-in area, the queue for the information desks was full of passengers and their baggage that were not heading anywhere, at least for today. In typical Japanese fashion, everything was calm, and orderly, and there were plenty of airport staff available to answer questions and direct passengers.

At Narita I met William Oliver, a British businessman who came to Tokyo last week for meetings and stayed over the weekend to do some sight-seeing. Learning that his flight home JAL flight, JL401 to London was now cancelled he said, “I wish I had just gone home as originally planned; but there is nothing for it is there? Understandably, and for obvious reasons, there is just not another airplane available“ He said that his airline has been very accommodating, and helpful, “… but I am still not sure how, or when, I am returning home.”

The arrivals board told the story of the diverted and cancelled inbound flights. Despite the cancellations, some flights did arrive several hours late.

What could be worse than not being able to get a flight out of Tokyo?

The news is actually worse for those who were already heading for Tokyo, especially for passengers who were in the air and on their way from European destinations. Generally these flights are set to arrive in the afternoon. Flights from the UK, Germany, and the Gulf Region are particularly affected. In the case of JAL’s London inbound flight, it was diverted to Nagoya airport. Some flights have been diverted as far away as Sapporo on the north island of Hokkaido, not an easy rail trip for passengers.

There were a few passengers who were luckier, and were diverted to Central Japan. I spoke to Jennifer Tolliver, a University student from Liverpool, as she was slumped over a cup of coffee in the Departures Hall. Bleary-eyed she relayed the story of how she was on her way to China to visit friends, and had chosen to fly via Tokyo to save money. “Our flight was diverted to Nagoya. I had no idea where exactly that was in Japan. Now, I have had to spend so much time and money on a train ticket that I could have just flown directly.” Her airline has managed to get her another flight later tonight, but with all of the other cancellations she voiced a concern that she would actually be able to make it. “I am just afraid I will need to spend more money for a hotel, if I can even find one.”

Emily Logan, a Australian on an extended “around the world trip” had been helped out significantly by her airline. Her next stop is San Francisco, and JAL was able to transfer her to a Cathay Pacific flight leaving tomorrow via Hong Kong. “We are not actually upset, but we are little annoyed that we are going to miss so much of our time in San Francisco.” At one point an airline representative had told her that things may not return to normal at Narita until Thursday. While we were speaking her travelling companion was on the phone checking to see if their travel insurance would cover extra expenses in this particular situation.

The International Arrivals hall would normally be full at this hour on a Monday

As I stood in the nearly empty Arrivals Hall on what should be a busy Monday night, watching the cancellations, an automated message was playing overhead. “The NAA (Narita Airport Authority) is advising that some aircraft have been diverted for operational reasons. Please contact your airline for further information, and we apologise for any inconvenience.”

Nothing to apologise for, but plenty of other emotions to express.

In my opinion, there is nothing to apologise for. I personally observed the Japanese Authorities, the airport, and the airlines handling issues and doing their best given the tragedy that they are also dealing with. While everyone I spoke to may have been inconvenienced, and it may take days for Narita to return to normal, people were still acutely aware that two pilots lost their lives today. That puts it all in perspective.

From all of us at TWC, we wish the FedEx pilots friends, family, and co-workers our sincere condolences for their loss.   To the brave firefighters and rescuers who tried their best to reach the pilots in time, we stand in awe of your bravery.